Covid: Keeping you updated 16

I am reminded again this week of the (I fear slightly misquoted) Vic Reeves comment that ‘89.2 % of statistics are inaccurate.’ My local newspaper, here in Bristol, has been running scary stories that ‘the South West has the fastest growth in new Covid cases outside London’ and an R rate ‘likely to be above 1.’ This is very worrying for many people; my elderly neighbour has returned to self-isolation.

However, consider this. Suppose the whole of the South West has the lowest number of cases, say 0.2 per 100,000 or 11.2 for the 5.6 million estimated people residing here. If, tomorrow, one of these people reported their symptoms and, through tracing and testing, it was found that 20 others who had been in the same pub had the virus, the total for the region would now be 31.2 (or 0.56 per 100,000). And if it was assumed that all 20 had been infected in the same pub (highly unlikely), we have an R value based upon this site of 20!