Hints of an upturn?

Negative trends in dispensing, reflection-free coatings and new contact lens fits show signs of levelling out

The annual growth of all benchmarks is still negative, but with many, such as dispensing, reflection free coatings and new contact lens fits, the degree of negativity is less, hinting of an upturn at some point, or at least a levelling out. It is over longer periods of time when moving annual averages are plotted that more gentle changes in direction are seen. When the variations become closer to zero, a general change in trends may be observed. Hence, even looking at this month's figures when all benchmarks still look depressing, it is with interest we look to the next few months to see whether the negative trends become less, and possibly even turn positive.

Eye examinations are down 11 per cent from May's results, down just 1 per cent from last June. The average over the last 12 months compared to the previous period is down 4.6 per cent. Again this is better than the -5.5 per cent last month, and -6 per cent the previous month, which suggests that this may be a turning point. The proportion of eye examinations that are NHS is unchanged at 66 per cent.

The total volume of dispensing is down 11 per cent this month, and just 2 per cent behind results for last June. The downward trend has reduced to -9 per cent from -11 per cent.

All types of lens are down from last month: single vision, bifocal and progressive volumes decreasing by 9 per cent, 9 per cent and 21 per cent respectively. Again, though the negative trend is less, with the average annual fall for each being -9 per cent, -9 per cent and -14 per cent in that same order.

The volume of reflection-free coatings has fallen by 16 per cent this month, down 7 per cent from last June. Overall, the downturn is 24 per cent for the year, which is huge, but better than -28 per cent last month. The proportion of spectacles having an AR coating shows negligible change at 46.1 per cent.

The dispensing rate is up slightly at 67.4 per cent. This is close to the average for the year of 67.3 per cent, down slightly from the previous 12 months at 68.1 per cent. Dispensing rate is calculated from total number of eye examinations and total dispensing, and hence does not take into account multiple dispensing.

New contact lens fits are down 16 per cent from May, up by almost 1 per cent from last June. The trend had been increasingly negative from last October, but is less this month at -2 per cent.

Solution sales are down 7 per cent from May. The annual trend is consistent at -2 per cent.

Total practice turnover results are down 11 per cent from May, and up over 4 per cent from June 2004. The annual trend is still negative at -2 per cent.

Turnover per eye examination is at a high point, only beaten by last December, at £137. Last June the figure was £127, although in May 2004 the figure was elevated again at £135, showing that the high points do tend to be seasonal.

When comparing your practice with the results, it is important to note that all our figures are equated to a 25-day month, so year on year, month on month we can compare equal time periods. June had 26 working days (excluding Sundays and UK bank holidays).

New contributors to the Index are always welcomed. Benefits of participation include customised graphs and comparisons, and contributors are able to make ad hoc enquiries, receiving feedback and results free of charge. If a practice would like to contribute please contact Louise Jarvis on 01622 851726, or by email to l.jarvis@businessbenchmarks.co.uk.