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October benchmarks show some improvements from the previous month - total eye examinations, and progressive lenses, while turnover shows negligible change. Dispensing and eye examinations have improved on average over the last quarter, turnover is levelling out and new contact lens fits are showing an increase of 6 per cent from last October.
Total practice turnover seems to have stabilised, showing growth of under 0.5 per cent over last month, now a 4 per cent drop on last year, negative annual growth of 9 per cent. The number of eye examinations carried out in October increased by 3 per cent from September. The average annual change is still -3 per cent but overall the last three months have shown signs of improvement.
Dispensing
Figure 1 (Total spectacles dispensed for October 2006-2009) shows how the Index predicted the beginning of the current recession. There has been a general decline since November 2006, steeper since September 2007, and an average fall of 21 per cent over the last two years (10.5 per cent per year).
Figures for December have established a very low pattern over the last three years at an Index value of 97. The individual points show continuing low points for the start of this year, which are now showing a recovery, with the moving average showing negligible change from the previous month. The Index figures for October improved by 2 per cent on September to 102. This is only the second time since December 2008 that we have seen figures of more than 100. This is a positive improvement and the first rise in five months, but it is a fall of 4 per cent on October last year, giving an annual growth rate of -3 per cent.
Comparison of total eye examinations and dispensing over the last 12 months (Figure 2) shows that although total eye examinations increased by 3 per cent to 103 between September and October, a figure which was at its highest of 117 in November 2008, the moving average continues to decline from a high point of 108 in December 2008 to the current low point of 104. Total eye examinations have historically reduced by 10 to 20 per cent in December, making a quick recovery during January and February. This figure reached an all-time low for mid-year of 97 in July 2009, and was the lowest recorded figure for a summer month since 1995.
Figures for dispensing show an increase from September of almost 3 per cent, the same increase as eye examinations. This amounts to a 13 per cent increase since July but is still representative of an overall decline of 14 per cent since November 2008. The moving average for total dispensing shows a decline of 11 per cent over the charted period, but the figure seems to have levelled off at 98 per cent over the last three months.
Just visually, the graph confirms that dispensing has declined by a higher percentage than eye examinations, 13 per cent versus 3 per cent respectively over the period plotted. This is borne out by a decline in dispensing rate which is now 56 per cent compared to 63 per cent this time last year.
Lenses
Figure 3 demonstrates the split between lens types over the last 10 years. Single-vision lenses (using the scale on the left axis of the chart) have accounted for between 69-73 per cent of all dispensing during this period. After a period of strong growth, single-vision share reached 73 per cent in December 2008, a figure which has been maintained right through 2009.
The change between bifocals and varifocals (both using the scale on the right axis) shows how the popularity of varifocals has increased at the expense of bifocals. While bifocals started to decline slowly in 2002, Varifocals began to increase during November 1999. The change of balance between the two types of lenses has been slow, with a crossover point between August and October 2002 where both accounted for 15 per cent of the market each and the pattern from that point onwards has reversed perhaps due to the technological advances of varifocals. However, the recent decline (since January 2008) in favour of single-vision lenses is obvious, and may be partially due to the current economic problems.
Reflection-free coats
For spectacles dispensed with AR coatings (Figures 4 and 5), there were peaks in volume in November, June, and September, and a very low point in April where the index value reduced to 90, concluding the decline. An average trend-line for AR coatings shows a continual but slow decline of around 16 per cent over the period October 2008 to October 2009, but again, recent months show a potential turnaround as average figures start to improve. Figure 5 shows how the percentage of AR coats as a proportion of spectacles dispensed has changed over time. The growth period to early 2004 is clearly seen, followed by a decline and increase again to early 2007 to 50 per cent. Over the last two years the percentage has declined again to nearer 44 per cent on average, due to the recession perhaps, but there is also a potential problem with data collection as some manufacturers apply AR coating as standard, and this may not always be recorded.
Reglazes
Reglazes since the beginning of 2009 (Figure 6) have shown a convincing upward trend. Over the year the percentage of spectacles which are reglazes has increased from 9 per cent to 12 per cent. Perhaps this is symptomatic of patients choosing to save money by not selecting new frames at the time of a new prescription - a sign of the recession taking its toll on disposable income.
Photochromic lenses
Photochromic lenses (Figure 7), have steadily increased over the last two years by 5 per cent since October 07, achieving the highest point of 13 per cent in September this year. In the Index sample the percentage of spectacles dispensed with photochromic lenses varies from 0 per cent to 29 per cent, with the median at 10 per cent, so the majority are around 7 per cent to 15 per cent. A few practices have achieved higher results, pulling the average up.
All figures are equated to a 25-day month, so month on month we can compare equal time periods.